St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)-110
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on September 24, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of an average season, with records of 77-81 and 78-80, respectively. The stakes may not be high in terms of playoff contention, but with the series tied at one game apiece, each team will be looking to gain the upper hand. In their last matchup, the Giants narrowly fell to the Cardinals by a score of 9-8, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.
On the mound, the Giants are projected to start JT Brubaker, who has struggled to find his rhythm this season with a Power Ranking of 249th among starting pitchers in MLB. Brubaker has yet to earn a win as a starter this year, and his projected performance of 4.5 innings pitched while allowing 2.3 earned runs is less than encouraging. In contrast, Sonny Gray of the Cardinals has been a reliable presence on the mound, boasting a solid 14-8 record and an impressive outing in his last start on September 19, where he allowed just 1 earned run over 6 innings.
Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Giants ranking 22nd in MLB in overall offense and 26th in batting average. The Cardinals aren’t faring much better, sitting at 24th in offense, but they have shown flashes of potential, particularly from their best hitter, who boasts a .294 batting average and a .810 OPS this season.
Given the current odds and the projected performances, the Giants may find themselves at a disadvantage on the mound, but with home-field advantage at Oracle Park, they could surprise the Cardinals and turn the tide in this tightly contested series.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)Generating 16.9 outs per start this year on average, Sonny Gray ranks in the 79th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Pedro Pages has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past two weeks.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Pedro Pages has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Drew Gilbert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Drew Gilbert has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Today’s version of the Giants projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .315 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .332 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.80 Units / 53% ROI)
- Christian Koss – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-240)Christian Koss has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 117% ROI)