Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Rockies vs Nationals – Wednesday June 18th, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Washington Nationals

On June 18, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park for the third game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Nationals holding a record of 30-43, while the Rockies sit at a dismal 16-57. In their most recent matchup on June 17, the Nationals fell to the Rockies by a score of 10-6, continuing their tough stretch.

The Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher with a 4-7 record and a 4.84 ERA this year. Parker’s recent performance has been shaky, as he got blown up in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over just 3 innings. However, he benefits from facing a Rockies offense that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB, which could play to his advantage given his low strikeout rate of 15.6%. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to walk batters (9.7 BB% this year) could be a concern.

On the other side, German Marquez is slated to take the mound for Colorado. With a record of 2-8 and a 6.62 ERA, Marquez has also struggled this season. Despite a poor ERA, his 4.70 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve. He pitched well in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 5 innings. However, his low strikeout rate of 15.1% against a Nationals team that rarely strikes out (4th least in MLB) may hinder his ability to capitalize on his strengths.

The Nationals’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, while the Rockies are even worse at 28th. With a Game Total set at 9.5 runs, the Nationals are favored to win with a moneyline of -165, reflecting an implied team total of 5.27 runs. Given the teams’ recent performances and their respective pitching matchups, this game could be pivotal for the Nationals as they look to turn their season around.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With 7 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, German Marquez will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Sam Hilliard – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Sam Hilliard is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Compared to their .324 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all SPs, Mitchell Parker’s fastball spin rate of 2169 rpm is in the 10th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as German Marquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.07 Units / 21% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+10.32 Units / 13% ROI)
• Daylen Lile – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Daylen Lile has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)