Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
(-110/-110)+160
Tonight’s matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium brings together two American League West teams in the midst of challenging seasons. The Angels, sitting at 37-52, are having a rough year, while the Rangers, with a 42-48 record, are performing below average. Both teams look to gain ground in the division, with the Rangers holding a slight edge.
Roansy Contreras takes the mound for the Angels. The right-hander has mostly worked out of the bullpen this season, starting only 2 games. Despite his 4.04 ERA, his 4.97 xFIP indicates he’s been fortunate, suggesting a potential regression. Contreras is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, 4.9 hits, and 1.7 walks, while striking out 3.7 batters. These projections paint a bleak picture for the Angels’ chances.
On the other side, the Rangers will counter with veteran ace Max Scherzer. Despite a 1-2 record, Scherzer boasts a stellar 2.70 ERA. However, his 4.57 xFIP hints at some luck, suggesting he might not be as dominant as his ERA suggests. Scherzer is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, 4.9 hits, and 1.2 walks, while striking out 6.5 batters. His experience and skill give the Rangers a clear advantage on the mound.
Offensively, the Angels rank 20th in MLB in both overall talent and team batting average, while their power ranks 15th in home runs. Their speed on the bases is a bright spot, ranking 8th in stolen bases. The Rangers, meanwhile, are more balanced, ranking 16th in overall talent and team batting average, but lagging in power (18th in home runs) and speed (22nd in stolen bases).
The Angels’ bullpen, ranked 30th, has struggled mightily, which could spell trouble late in the game. Conversely, the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 17th, providing a more reliable option to close out games.
Given the pitching matchup and the overall team dynamics, the Rangers are favored with a moneyline of -165, translating to an implied win probability of 60%. The Angels, as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, have an implied win probability of 40%. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Max Scherzer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Max Scherzer will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 7 opposing batters in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- The 7.4% Barrel% of the Texas Rangers grades them out as the #21 group of hitters in MLB this year by this metric.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Roansy Contreras – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)In his previous game started, Roansy Contreras wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out and was only able to tally 1 Ks.Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Mickey Moniak may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Logan O’Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+9.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+13.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.55 Units / 27% ROI)