Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Marlins vs Mets – Sunday August 18th, 2024

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 18, 2024, they look to continue their strong play in this National League East matchup. The Mets currently sit at 64-59, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins linger at 45-78, having struggled considerably. Notably, the Mets aim to bounce back after a tough loss yesterday, while their pitching will be led by Paul Blackburn, who is projected to start.

Blackburn has had a mixed season, with a decent 4.43 ERA and a 5-3 Win/Loss record. However, he has been one of the lower-ranked starters, coming in at #186 in advanced-stat Power Rankings and faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 29th in the league offensively. The Marlins are projected to start Valente Bellozo, who has been performing well with an impressive 2.28 ERA on the year. Although Bellozo’s low ERA is notable, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a regression.

The matchup favors the Mets not only due to their stronger overall season but also because their offense ranks 10th in MLB and is particularly potent, hitting 132 home runs, which is 4th best in the league. In contrast, the Marlins’ lack of power—ranking 29th with just 85 home runs—could hinder their ability to capitalize against Blackburn, a high-groundball pitcher. The projections suggest that today could be a fruitful outing for the Mets against a struggling opponent, reflected in the high implied team total of 4.85 runs for New York. Odds makers favor the Mets heavily, setting the current moneyline at -185.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Valente Bellozo’s 89.4-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 5th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.307) suggests that Kyle Stowers has experienced some negative variance this year with his .225 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Paul Blackburn has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Jesse Winker has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+14.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+22.25 Units / 58% ROI)