Check Out Yankees vs Astros Picks and Betting Tips – Tuesday September 2nd, 2025

New York Yankees

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 2, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, each boasting impressive records of 76-62 and 76-61, respectively. With the stakes high, this matchup marks the first game in the series between these two contenders. In their last outing, the Astros secured a solid 8-3 victory, while the Yankees fell short, losing 3-2.

On the mound, the Astros are set to start Framber Valdez, who has had a productive season, posting a 12-7 record and a commendable ERA of 3.18. Valdez’s groundball-heavy approach (61% GB%) could prove beneficial against a Yankees lineup known for its power, as they lead MLB with 233 home runs this season. However, Valdez’s projections indicate some potential regression, as his xERA of 3.73 suggests he may have been a bit lucky thus far.

Opposing him will be Max Fried, who has been nothing short of stellar with a 14-5 record and a 3.06 ERA, ranking as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Fried’s ability to limit walks (6.3% BB rate) could be crucial against an Astros offense that ranks 6th in the league for least walks. However, Fried’s projections also hint at a possible decline in performance, with an xERA of 3.73.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best overall lineup in MLB, with their best hitter recording 43 home runs and a stellar 1.117 OPS this season. Meanwhile, the Astros, while averaging a respectable 4.10 runs according to current odds, rank 13th in overall offensive talent.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Max Fried’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (57.1% vs. 50.9% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees bats collectively rank in the league for power this year when assessing with their 12% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Framber Valdez was on point in his last start and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Yordan Alvarez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 94.7-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 124 games (+16.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+185/-245)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)