Check Out the Twins vs Rays Best Bets and Expert Picks – Monday September 02, 2024

Minnesota Twins

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 2, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League. The Twins currently sit at 74-62, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays hold a record of 67-69, marking an average campaign. This matchup is crucial for both teams, particularly for the Rays, who are not currently contending for a playoff spot.

In their last outing, the Twins faced a tough opponent and came away with a narrow victory, while the Rays are looking to bounce back after a lackluster performance. The Rays are set to start Zack Littell, who has had a mixed season with a 5-8 record and a solid 3.89 ERA. However, his 4.41 xERA suggests he might have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Littell projects to pitch just 4.3 innings today, which may put strain on a bullpen that ranks 3rd best in MLB.

Meanwhile, the Twins will counter with Simeon Woods Richard, who has been less effective, holding a 5-3 record with a 3.85 ERA. His 4.42 xFIP indicates he, too, may be due for regression. Woods Richard projects to pitch 4.9 innings, which is not ideal given the struggles he’s faced.

Offensively, the Rays rank just 25th in MLB, struggling to find power with only 97 home runs this season. In contrast, the Twins boast the 9th best offense, highlighted by their ability to hit for average and power. This disparity could play a significant role in today’s game. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup. With both teams’ moneylines at -110, betting markets anticipate a closely contested game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Simeon Woods Richardson to throw 84 pitches in this game (11th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Matt Wallner is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .309 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Minnesota Twins projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup significantly missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Zack Littell’s four-seam fastball usage has decreased by 7.3% from last year to this one (27.9% to 20.6%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 69 of their last 116 games (+18.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Zack Littell – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+145/-190)
  Zack Littell has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)