Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Red Sox vs Yankees – Thursday, September 12, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 12, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. With the Yankees holding a solid 84-62 record, they stand in contention for postseason play, while the Red Sox, at 74-72, are having an average season and are not currently in the playoff race. The Yankees are coming off a narrow 4-3 victory against the Kansas City Royals on September 11, while the Red Sox secured a win over the Baltimore Orioles by a score of 5-3 in their last outing.

On the mound, the Yankees will send out Nestor Cortes, who is ranked as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings, Cortes boasts an ERA of 3.97 this season, indicating he is generally effective. His ability to strike out 6.2 batters on average today will be crucial against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 6th in MLB offensively.

Opposing him will be Cooper Criswell, projected to pitch only 4.5 innings on average, which is less than ideal. Criswell has struggled with an ERA of 4.11 and is considered one of the weaker pitchers in MLB, making this matchup even more favorable for the Yankees. The projections suggest the Yankees could score an impressive 5.57 runs, reflecting their potent offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB this season.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, this game promises to be an engaging showdown, especially with the Yankees looking to capitalize on their offensive power against a struggling pitcher in Criswell. Bettors may find the Yankees’ current moneyline of -185 appealing, given their strong standing and home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cooper Criswell to throw 79 pitches in today’s outing (14th-most of all pitchers today), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Wilyer Abreu is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#1-worst on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Boston Red Sox have 5 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story, Ceddanne Rafaela, Tyler O’Neill, Romy Gonzalez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Nestor Cortes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  The Boston Red Sox have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Nestor Cortes today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 90 games (+20.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 53 away games (+13.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Austin Wells has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)