Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Rangers vs Guardians – Friday, August 23, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Texas Rangers on August 23, 2024, both teams come into the matchup with contrasting momentum. The Guardians, currently sporting a record of 73-54, are enjoying a strong season despite a recent setback where they were shut out by the New York Yankees, losing 6-0 on August 22. In contrast, the Rangers, at 59-69, recently celebrated a narrow 1-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Cleveland is projected to start Tanner Bibee, who ranks as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, and has been solid this season with a 10-5 record and an impressive 3.33 ERA. Bibee’s last start was encouraging; he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 7 batters. However, he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.4 per game, which could be a vulnerability against Texas.

The Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who, while above average at 61st in MLB rankings, holds an 8-7 record with a 3.76 ERA. Eovaldi pitched effectively in his last outing, going 7 innings with 3 earned runs and 6 strikeouts. However, his tendency to allow 1.6 walks per game could give Cleveland’s hitters opportunities to capitalize.

Offensively, the Guardians boast the 16th best offense in MLB and their standout player, Jose Ramirez, has had a stellar season, contributing significantly to the team’s success. Meanwhile, the Rangers are struggling offensively, ranking 24th overall. The projections suggest that the Guardians should score around 4.12 runs, while the Rangers are expected to tally about 4.14 runs. However, given the Guardians’ stronger record and home-field advantage, they could pull off a tighter win despite the betting markets indicating a close contest.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Nathan Eovaldi – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Nathan Eovaldi has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Corey Seager is apt to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With a 0.29 discrepancy between Tanner Bibee’s 9.79 K/9 and his 9.51 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see negative regression going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.2) may lead us to conclude that Steven Kwan has been lucky this year with his 17.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-145)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games at home (+11.87 Units / 15% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games (+9.20 Units / 44% ROI)