Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Athletics vs Red Sox – Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Athletics

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Boston Red Sox

On September 16, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Oakland Athletics at Fenway Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Red Sox currently sit at 82-68, enjoying an above-average season, while the Athletics are struggling at 70-80, placing them firmly in below-average territory. The stakes are high for Boston, as they work to solidify their position in the playoff race.

In their most recent outing, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess, leading to a decisive victory. They will be looking to capitalize on their strong lineup, which ranks 8th in MLB. The Athletics, despite having a top-tier offense ranked 5th overall, have struggled to translate that into wins, particularly with a bullpen that ranks 29th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Projected to start for Boston is Connelly Early, who has made a splash in his limited time this season, boasting a 0.00 ERA and a solid 1-0 record. Early’s ability to induce ground balls (56% GB rate) could play a pivotal role against an Athletics lineup that thrives on power, having hit 211 home runs this year. On the other hand, Oakland will counter with Jeffrey Springs, who has had a rough season with a 4.28 ERA and a 10-11 record. Springs’ projections indicate he may struggle, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs and 5.2 hits in just under 5 innings pitched.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and the Red Sox favored at -155, the projections suggest Boston could hit their implied team total of 4.94 runs, making them a solid pick for bettors seeking value. As the Red Sox look to maintain their momentum, the matchup favors them, especially with Early’s performance on the mound against a struggling Athletics’ bullpen.

Athletics Insights

• Jeffrey Springs – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)
  Jeffrey Springs has averaged 92.7 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Lawrence Butler has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Connelly Early – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Connelly Early today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Rob Refsnyder has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 102.8-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-155)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 85 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+135)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 64 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)