Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Brewers vs Cubs Matchup 6/19/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 19, 2025, both teams are looking to make a statement in this crucial National League Central matchup. The Cubs currently sit at 45-28, enjoying a strong season, while the Brewers are holding their ground with a record of 39-35, marking them as an above-average team. In their last game on June 17, the Cubs secured a 5-3 victory over the Brewers, further solidifying their competitive edge.

The Cubs will send Jameson Taillon to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 7-3 record and a respectable 3.48 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest that he may have been a bit lucky so far, as indicated by his 4.59 FIP. Taillon’s high flyball rate (40 FB%) could play to his advantage against a Brewers offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 25th in home runs with just 66 this season.

On the other hand, Freddy Peralta will take the hill for the Brewers. With a stellar 2.60 ERA and a 6-4 record, he has been one of the more effective pitchers in the league. However, his projections indicate a potential drop in performance, as his xFIP stands at 4.07. Peralta faces a daunting challenge against a Cubs offense that ranks 4th in the league, boasting 99 home runs this season.

With the Cubs’ potent lineup and Taillon’s favorable matchup against a weak Brewers offense, oddsmakers have set the Cubs’ moneyline at -130, indicating a close contest. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive showdown. As both teams vie for supremacy in the division, all eyes will be on Wrigley Field.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Freddy Peralta is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Chicago (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Jameson Taillon has utilized his cutter 12.6% less often this year (12.4%) than he did last year (25%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (+110/-145)
  Freddy Peralta has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.25 Units / 71% ROI)