Check Out the Royals vs Giants Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday May 20, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

San Francisco Giants

On May 20, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Kansas City Royals at Oracle Park in an important Interleague matchup. This game is the second in the series, with the Giants looking to bounce back after losing their previous game to the Royals by a score of 3-1 on May 19. Currently, the Giants, with a record of 28-20, are having a strong season, while the Royals, sitting at 27-22, are also showing promise.

Projected to take the mound for San Francisco is Hayden Birdsong, who boasts an impressive ERA of 2.31 this season, despite being ranked as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB. Birdsong’s last appearance on September 29, 2024, saw him pitch four innings, allowing three earned runs with 11 strikeouts. However, he projects to throw only 4.6 innings today, which could put pressure on the Giants’ top-ranked bullpen, a critical asset for them this year.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen is slated to start for Kansas City. With a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.76, Lorenzen has had a decent season, but his peripherals suggest he may not maintain this level of performance. The Royals’ offense, currently ranked 26th overall, struggles significantly with power, recording the fewest home runs in MLB. This plays directly into Birdsong’s favor, as he is a high-flyball pitcher facing a lineup that has difficulty capitalizing on fly-ball opportunities.

With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Giants are favored at -140, indicating an implied team total of approximately 3.98 runs. Given the strengths and weaknesses of both pitchers and their respective lineups, San Francisco could very well find the offensive output necessary to claim a victory and steady themselves after their recent loss.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (59.8% compared to 51.7% last year) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 98.7-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Hayden Birdsong – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Hayden Birdsong’s fastball spin rate has risen 102 rpm this year (2393 rpm) over where it was last season (2291 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme groundball batters like Wilmer Flores tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.60 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 38 games (+22.30 Units / 51% ROI)
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+10.60 Units / 265% ROI)