Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Tigers – 6/17/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Detroit Tigers

On June 17, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Comerica Park in an Interleague matchup. The Tigers, boasting a strong 46-27 record this season, are positioned well in the standings, while the Pirates sit at 29-44, struggling to find their footing. Detroit is coming off a victory, and with Casey Mize projected to start, they look to build momentum against a Pirates team that has had a rough go of it.

Mize, a right-handed pitcher, has been solid this year with a 6-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.95. However, his xFIP of 4.03 indicates that he might have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges moving forward. On the other side, Bailey Falter, a lefty for Pittsburgh, has a 5-3 record and a decent ERA of 3.36, yet his xFIP of 4.66 suggests that he, too, may be due for a regression. Both pitchers have their strengths and weaknesses, but the matchup heavily favors Mize against a Pirates offense that ranks as the 29th best in MLB.

The projections indicate that Mize will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, while Falter is anticipated to cover about 5.0 innings, giving up around 3.0 earned runs. The Tigers’ offense, ranked 9th best in the league, is well-equipped to exploit Falter’s low strikeout rate, especially since they rank 4th in strikeouts. Detroit’s elite bullpen, ranked 2nd, could also play a crucial role in sealing a victory.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Tigers favored with a moneyline of -195, bettors might find value in Detroit as they look to capitalize on their favorable matchup against a struggling Pirates squad.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+170)
  Out of all the teams in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.4-mph dropping to 80.4-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew McCutchen hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Casey Mize (45.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Javier Baez is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Dillon Dingler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 73 games (+13.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+17.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-8000)
  Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)