Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Pirates vs Braves – 9/27/25

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in disappointing seasons, with the Braves at 75-85 and the Pirates at 70-90. This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the second game of the series, and the Braves will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Truist Park.

In their previous game, the Braves struggled against the Pirates, falling short in a tight contest. However, they are favored to bounce back, primarily due to their starting pitcher, Spencer Strider. Despite a less-than-ideal Win/Loss record of 7-13 this season, Strider is ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, which indicates that he possesses considerable talent. He projects to allow an average of only 2.3 earned runs and strike out 7.2 batters, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing hitters. Strider’s high flyball percentage could work in his favor against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in home runs this season.

On the other hand, Bubba Chandler will take the mound for the Pirates. Although Chandler has a respectable Win/Loss record of 3-1, he is considered a below-average pitcher based on the projections. He is expected to pitch just 4.3 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs, which spells trouble against a Braves offense that, while average overall, ranks 11th in home runs.

With the Braves having a strong bullpen ranked 10th in MLB, they have the potential to shut down the Pirates late in the game. The Braves are currently favored with a moneyline of -165 and an implied team total of 4.44 runs, reflecting a favorable outlook on their chances to secure a victory today.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Bubba Chandler has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -7.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year, notching a .297 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .053 gap.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Spencer Strider has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.50 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.67 — a 1.16 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+12.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 90 of their last 149 games (+24.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+3.80 Units / 21% ROI)