Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Cubs vs Pirates – 8/28/24

Chicago Cubs

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 28, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates currently sit at a record of 62-70, reflecting a below-average season, while the Cubs are slightly better at 67-66, marking an average performance thus far. Both teams are battling in the National League Central, and this matchup carries significance as they look to gain momentum heading into the final stretch of the season.

In their last encounter on August 27, the Pirates suffered a disappointing 9-5 loss to the Cubs, which could weigh heavily on their morale. For today’s contest, the Pirates are slated to start Paul Skenes, who boasts an impressive 2.16 ERA and ranks as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats. His last outing was stellar, as he pitched six innings without allowing an earned run, striking out nine batters. This performance adds to the expectation that Skenes can dominate a Cubs lineup that has struggled against quality pitching.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound. Hendricks has had a rough season with a 6.33 ERA and a 3-10 record, making him a target for the Pirates’ hitters. Despite being a low-strikeout pitcher, he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving him a slight edge. However, given the projections, there is optimism for the Pirates, who are favored with a high implied team total of 4.46 runs today.

The projections indicate that the Pirates will score around 5.04 runs, reflecting their potential to break out offensively against a struggling Hendricks. With Skenes on the mound and the Cubs’ offensive inconsistencies, this game leans in favor of the Pirates as they aim to bounce back from their previous defeat.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+140/-180)
  Kyle Hendricks’s 87.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 0th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  In the last week, Cody Bellinger’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be smart to expect better results for the Chicago Cubs offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Given that groundball batters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, Paul Skenes and his 47.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in today’s game facing 1 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Billy McKinney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Chicago Cubs don’t have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Billy McKinney is certain to hold the platoon advantage against every reliever the entire game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank 10th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 8.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+14.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miguel Amaya – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Miguel Amaya has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 74% ROI)