Check Out the Pirates vs Mariners Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 7/5/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 5, 2025, they come off a recent victory in the first game of this interleague series, showcasing their strength at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners currently hold a record of 46-42, placing them in a solid position as they aim to build momentum. In contrast, the Pirates struggle with a record of 38-51, indicating a challenging season.

Seattle is projected to start Luis Castillo, who, despite being ranked as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has maintained a respectable ERA of 3.55 this year. His ability to pitch 5.9 innings on average while allowing 2.4 earned runs positions him favorably against a Pirates offense that ranks 29th in the league. Castillo’s low strikeout rate of 19.4% may actually play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that has the 5th most strikeouts in MLB.

On the other side, Pittsburgh will counter with Michael Burrows, who has struggled this season with a 4.15 ERA and a concerning projection of just 4.6 innings pitched. His 1-2 record suggests he has not been able to provide consistent length or effectiveness. The Pirates’ offense is also lacking, ranking as the 29th best in MLB, which further complicates their chances against a Mariners team that boasts the 11th best offense, highlighted by their 6th best home run total.

With the Mariners favored at -185, the projections indicate a high implied team total of 4.28 runs, while the Pirates sit at a low 3.22 runs. Given the current form and matchup advantages, Seattle looks poised to secure another win in this series.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball bats, Mike Burrows and his 36.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable spot in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Oneil Cruz will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today’s game… and will be extra-advantaged due to his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ben Williamson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 7 games at home (+2.05 Units / 29% ROI)