Check Out the Pirates vs Mariners Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday July 06, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Seattle Mariners

On July 6, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of their interleague series at T-Mobile Park. This matchup comes on the heels of a tight contest on July 5, where the Mariners edged the Pirates 1-0, highlighting the struggles of Pittsburgh, who sits at 38-52 this season—firmly in the midst of a disappointing campaign. The Mariners, meanwhile, have fared better, with a record of 47-42 and an above-average season, fueled by a solid offense ranked 13th in MLB.

Starting for Seattle is George Kirby, the 32nd best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics. Despite a less-than-stellar 2-4 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 4.85, Kirby showed promise in his last start on June 30, pitching 6 innings and allowing just 1 earned run with 5 strikeouts. He projects to allow an average of only 1.9 earned runs today, making him a potential asset for the Mariners.

Opposing Kirby is Paul Skenes, who has emerged as one of the league’s top pitchers, sitting at 2nd overall. With an impressive ERA of 2.03, Skenes has been dominant, but his 4-7 record suggests he has faced some tough luck. He threw well in his last outing on July 1, tossing 5 scoreless innings, and the projections indicate he will continue to maintain his high standards in this matchup.

The Mariners hold a low implied team total of 3.25 runs, pointing to a potentially close game. However, given Skenes’s tendency to induce high strikeout rates against the Mariners’ striking-prone offense, he may be able to keep his team in the game. Overall, the Mariners’ ability to capitalize on Skenes’s weaknesses will be crucial as they look to build on their recent victory and solidify their standing for the remainder of the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (97.5 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like George Kirby.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a significant advantage over flyball hitters, George Kirby and his 43.7% underlying FB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s game going up against 4 opposing FB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Over the last week, Jorge Polanco’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 74 games (+6.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 38% ROI)