Check Out the Pirates vs Cardinals Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 5/7/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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St. Louis Cardinals

On May 7, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium for the third game of their series. The Cardinals currently sit at 18-19, marking an average start to the season, while the Pirates are struggling significantly with a record of 12-25. The Cardinals are favored in this matchup, with a moneyline of -170, reflecting their 61% implied win probability.

In their most recent outing, the Cardinals demonstrated their offensive prowess, with their best hitter contributing significantly to the team’s performance. With a ranking of 9th best in MLB for offense, the Cardinals have been particularly effective at the plate, boasting the 2nd best batting average league-wide. This offensive depth could pose challenges for Pirates’ starter Mitch Keller, who has had a rough year and ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced statistics.

Sonny Gray, the Cardinals’ projected starter, has shown flashes of promise this season, with a solid Win/Loss record of 3-1 and an average projection of 5.7 innings pitched today. His ERA stands at 4.12, though his 3.60 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential for better performances ahead. Facing a Pirates lineup that ranks 26th in offense and has struggled to generate power, Gray should have a favorable matchup.

In contrast, Keller’s projections point to a tough outing, as he’s expected to allow 3.2 earned runs and 6.4 hits, both below average. With the Cardinals’ strong offensive capabilities and Keller’s struggles, this game could tilt heavily in favor of St. Louis. While the Pirates have shown some speed on the base paths, their lack of power makes it challenging to capitalize on any scoring opportunities. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, it seems likely that the Cardinals will capitalize on their strengths against a faltering Pirates squad.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+140)
  Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Oneil Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 96.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Sonny Gray’s four-seam fastball percentage has fallen by 5.5% from last season to this one (23.8% to 18.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Gorman generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Mitch Keller.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 away games (+5.65 Units / 36% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-170/+130)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+6.50 Units / 20% ROI)