Check Out the Padres vs Yankees Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday May 06, 2025

San Diego Padres

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the San Diego Padres on May 6, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Yankees, currently holding a record of 19-16, are having an above-average season, while the Padres sit at 23-11, showcasing a strong campaign. Yesterday, the Yankees fell to the Padres by a score of 4-3 in a closely contested matchup, which adds extra motivation for the Yankees to bounce back in this second game of the series.

On the mound, Clarke Schmidt is projected to start for the Yankees. Despite being ranked 67th among MLB starting pitchers, Schmidt has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.52 and a 0-1 record in three starts. However, the projections suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP of 4.81 indicates some bad luck thus far. Schmidt’s last outing saw him pitch effectively, allowing only one earned run over five innings, which could bode well for his performance today.

Opposing him will be Michael King, who has been exceptional this season with a 2.09 ERA and a 4-1 record over seven starts, ranking him as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB. King’s ability to generate strikeouts will be crucial, especially against a Yankees lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts. However, he faces a powerful Yankees offense that leads the league with 58 home runs.

With the Yankees boasting the 1st best offense in MLB and the Padres sitting at 13th, the matchup favors the Yankees, especially considering their elite ranking in home runs. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. The Yankees aim to leverage their offensive prowess and bounce back from yesterday’s loss, making this an exciting matchup to watch.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Michael King is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jason Heyward – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jason Heyward’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 88-mph mark last season has decreased to 84.4-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Clarke Schmidt in the 81st percentile among all SPs in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Typically, hitters like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael King.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  In today’s game, Aaron Judge is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (89th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in their last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 90% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 6 games (+6.15 Units / 84% ROI)