Check Out the Padres vs Yankees Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday May 06, 2025

San Diego Padres

@

New York Yankees

On May 6, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the San Diego Padres at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. The Yankees, currently 19-16, are having an above-average season, while the Padres boast an impressive 23-11 record, indicating they are playing at a high level. Both teams faced off just yesterday, with the Padres emerging victorious, adding intrigue to today’s contest.

The Yankees will send out right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who has had a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record and a troubling 5.52 ERA. However, Schmidt’s 4.80 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, and projections indicate he could perform better moving forward. He is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.2 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters, which is below average.

Opposing him will be Michael King, also a right-handed pitcher, who has been a revelation with a 4-1 record and a stellar 2.09 ERA. King’s 3.31 xFIP indicates he might regress slightly, but he projects to be effective today, with an estimated 5.6 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, and an impressive 6.0 strikeouts. King’s high strikeout rate plays into the Yankees’ tendency to strike out, which could work to his advantage.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB in both team batting average and home runs, showcasing their explosive power. Meanwhile, the Padres sit 13th overall, with a commendable batting average at 3rd but a disappointing 21st in home runs. The Yankees’ offensive depth could pose problems for King, particularly given that he has a flyball tendency, which could lead to home runs against this powerful lineup.

With both teams evenly matched on paper, the Yankees’ elite offense and King’s strikeout ability will be pivotal in shaping the outcome of this game, which carries significant implications given both teams’ standings. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating that oddsmakers expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Michael King is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Jose Iglesias has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.6-mph dropping to 74.9-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Clarke Schmidt in the 81st percentile among all SPs in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Typically, hitters like Aaron Judge who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael King.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  In today’s game, Aaron Judge is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (89th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in their last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 90% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+215/-290)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+5.20 Units / 65% ROI)