Check Out the Padres vs Dodgers Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 8/16/2025

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres prepare for their matchup on August 16, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive position within the National League West, boasting identical records of 69-53. The Dodgers currently hold a slight edge in the standings, which adds extra weight to this pivotal game, especially after Los Angeles edged out San Diego 3-2 in their last encounter.

On the mound, the Dodgers are slated to start Blake Snell, who has had a strong season thus far with a 2-1 record and a stellar 2.37 ERA, ranking him as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Snell has shown flashes of brilliance, including an impressive outing in his last start on August 9, where he pitched five innings without allowing any earned runs. However, his projected performance today raises some concerns, as he is expected to allow 5.1 hits, which could be problematic against a Padres lineup that, while struggling, still possesses power potential.

Dylan Cease will take the mound for San Diego, bringing a 5-10 record and a 4.52 ERA into the game. Despite his average season, Cease has shown signs of improvement, having pitched effectively in his last outing on August 10, where he allowed just two earned runs over six innings. His 3.30 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky this year, hinting at potential upside.

In terms of offensive production, the Dodgers boast the 1st best overall offense in MLB this season, while the Padres rank 19th. The Dodgers’ power is evident with their 181 home runs, placing them 2nd in the league, which could pose a significant challenge for Cease, a high-flyball pitcher. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets view this matchup as closely contested, with the Dodgers currently favored at -120. Given the Dodgers’ offensive prowess and Snell’s recent form, they could very well exceed expectations today.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Among all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2550 rpm is in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Despite posting a .385 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been very fortunate given the .058 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Blake Snell – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Blake Snell has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying an extra 3.4 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Shohei Ohtani has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 22.9% seasonal rate to 45.5% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 44 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.15 Units / 27% ROI)