Check Out the Orioles vs Mets Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 8/19/2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 19, 2024, they find themselves in a crucial interleague matchup. The Mets, currently sitting at 64-60, are having an above-average season, while the Orioles boast a strong 73-52 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league. Despite the Orioles’ success, the Mets are looking to bounce back after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Miami Marlins yesterday.

In this contest, the Mets are projected to start David Peterson, who has been effective this season with a 3.04 ERA and a solid 7-1 record over 13 starts. Peterson’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. Although he ranks as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB, his ability to generate ground balls (53% GB rate) may serve him well against an Orioles lineup that excels in power hitting, leading the league with 157 home runs.

On the other side, Baltimore will send Trevor Rogers to the mound. Rogers has struggled this year, with a 4.89 ERA and a disappointing 2-11 record over 24 starts. His last performance saw him surrender five earned runs over five innings, raising concerns about his effectiveness. The projections suggest that Rogers could struggle again, as he is expected to allow 3.1 earned runs today.

Offensively, the Mets rank 9th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that includes Francisco Lindor, while the Orioles are 2nd, led by Gunnar Henderson. With the Mets projected to score 5.03 runs and their current moneyline set at -135, betting markets indicate that they are slightly favored, despite the Orioles’ strong overall performance. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Mets to capitalize on their home-field advantage and regain momentum in the series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  The New York Mets have 9 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor Rogers in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles bats collectively rank 3rd- in the majors for power this year when judging by their 9.5% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Among all starting pitchers, David Peterson’s fastball spin rate of 2135 rpm grades out in the 21st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 85.6-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 76.5-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Harrison Bader hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+9.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 116 games (+18.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.60 Units / 45% ROI)