New York Mets
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-135
The Seattle Mariners will host the New York Mets in an intriguing interleague matchup on August 9, 2024. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Mariners holding a record of 60-56, while the Mets sit at 61-54. This game marks the opening contest of a three-game series, adding an extra layer of excitement.
In their latest outings, the Mariners edged out the Detroit Tigers 4-3, showcasing their resilience, while the Mets dominated the Colorado Rockies with a commanding 9-1 victory. The Mariners will rely on right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller, who has been effective this season with a 3.62 ERA but faces a daunting challenge against the powerful Mets offense, which ranks 4th in MLB with 132 home runs. Despite being ranked 90th among pitchers, Miller’s recent form has been uneven, as he allowed four earned runs in just four innings during his last start on August 3.
Jose Quintana, the Mets’ projected starter, has struggled this season, with an xFIP of 4.52, suggesting a tough road ahead. However, his last start saw him allowing three earned runs over five innings, which could signal a potential bounce back. The Mets offense, led by Francisco Lindor, has been on fire lately, ranking 9th overall and 10th in batting average. Lindor’s prowess, combined with strong recent performances from Pete Alonso, could put pressure on Miller.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are favored for this matchup, projecting them to score around 4.55 runs. This contrasts with the Mets’ projected total of 4.26 runs, indicating a potentially close game. Given the Mariners’ struggles offensively, ranking 27th overall, they will need adjustments to capitalize on their pitching advantage if they hope to secure a crucial victory.
New York Mets Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jose Quintana has utilized his secondary pitches 5.4% more often this year (49%) than he did last year (43.6%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Francisco Lindor has paced 31.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 94th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Bryce Miller’s fastball spin rate has decreased 113 rpm this year (2478 rpm) below where it was last year (2591 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 53 games at home (+17.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+115)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games (+14.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- Dylan Moore – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)Dylan Moore has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+10.15 Units / 94% ROI)