Check Out the Live Stream Details for Rays vs Yankees – Sunday, May 04, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

On May 4, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in a critical American League East matchup. The Yankees, currently sitting at 19-14, are having a strong season, especially considering their ranking as the 1st best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Rays are struggling with a 15-18 record, placing them firmly in the below-average category. In their previous meeting, the Yankees showcased their might, securing a commanding victory to continue their momentum.

Yankees pitcher Will Warren is projected to take the mound, having started six games this season with a 1-1 record and a troubling ERA of 5.63. Although Warren’s ERA is concerning, his xFIP of 3.76 projects that he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs but with a high projection of 4.9 hits, indicating he may be vulnerable.

Opposing Warren is the Rays’ Taj Bradley, who has been more effective this season with a 2-2 record and an ERA of 4.58. While Bradley has a solid xERA of 3.65, making him the 82nd best pitcher in MLB, he faces a Yankees lineup that ranks 4th in strikeouts—his low strikeout percentage could work against him.

Overall, the Yankees enter this game as major betting favorites, with a current moneyline of -180 and a projected team total of 5.10 runs. This matchup presents an opportunity for New York to capitalize on their offensive prowess against Tampa Bay’s shaky pitching. Given their elite ranking, the Yankees should be poised to continue their recent success and leverage their home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Among all SPs, Taj Bradley’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph grades out in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kameron Misner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Kameron Misner has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 75.1-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Will Warren is an extreme groundball pitcher (46.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #3 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Aaron Judge tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected offense today (.320 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .352 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.22 Units / 21% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ben Rortvedt has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)