Check Out the Live Stream Details for Phillies vs Braves – Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves get set to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on August 21, 2024, this National League East matchup is significant given the playoff implications. The Braves stand at 67-58, currently 10.5 games back in the division, while the Phillies are having a stellar season at 73-52, firmly in contention.

In their last contest on August 20, the Braves edged out the Phillies 3-1, with Max Fried set to take the mound against Aaron Nola in this second game of the series. Fried, currently ranked 9th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had an up-and-down season with a 7-7 record and a solid 3.62 ERA. Despite a mediocre last start, where he went 5 innings allowing 3 earned runs, his high groundball rate (58 GB%) could work in his favor against a powerful Phillies offense that has tallied 124 home runs this year—the 6th most in MLB.

Nola, rated 43rd, brings his 11-6 record and impressive 3.45 ERA to the matchup. He pitched well in his last outing with 7 shutout innings against the Braves, but his higher FIP of 3.99 suggests he may not be as fortunate going forward. The projections favor the Braves slightly, predicting they’ll score 4.57 runs on average, compared to the Phillies’ 4.16.

With the Braves’ offense ranking 13th overall but struggling with walks, they may find success against Nola’s low walk rate. Given the betting markets set both teams at -110, suggesting a tight contest, the Braves could provide value today as they look to build on their recent victory.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Aaron Nola will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing hitters in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  J.T. Realmuto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+135)
  Max Fried’s 24th percentile Walk% (9% this year) demonstrates his bad control ability.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future walks is past walks.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.5-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 101 games (+22.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 66 of their last 118 games (+9.60 Units / 5% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)