Los Angeles Dodgers
Texas Rangers
(-110/-110)+130
On April 20, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Globe Life Field in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. The Dodgers are currently performing well, sitting at a 15-7 record this season, while the Rangers are close behind at 13-8. This game is critical for both teams as they look to solidify their places in the standings.
In their last meeting, the Rangers faced off against the Dodgers, with the Dodgers taking the victory. Today, both teams will lean on their starting pitchers, Tyler Mahle for the Rangers and the elite Tyler Glasnow for the Dodgers. Mahle has started four games this year without a loss, boasting a 3-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.92. However, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat fortunate and may not sustain this level of performance going forward. Meanwhile, Glasnow, despite his below-average ERA of 4.85, is highly regarded, ranking as the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system.
Offensively, the Dodgers rank 6th in MLB and are hitting home runs at a prolific rate, leading the league with 36 this season. The Rangers, on the other hand, rank a lackluster 25th overall. Their offense has struggled to generate consistent runs, which could prove detrimental against a powerful opponent like Los Angeles.
In this matchup, the Rangers find themselves as the underdog with a moneyline of +130. Given the high-octane nature of the Dodgers’ offense against Mahle’s flyball tendencies, it may be a challenging day for the Rangers. Conversely, with the Rangers’ low walk rate, they might struggle to exploit Glasnow’s control issues. As the game total sits at 8.5 runs, betting enthusiasts might find value in considering the Dodgers to harness their power against Mahle.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)Recording 17.6 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Tyler Glasnow ranks in the 89th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Tommy Edman has made big gains with his Barrel%, upping his 3.6% rate last year to 12.3% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Mookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)Considering the 1.61 deviation between Tyler Mahle’s 2.51 ERA and his 4.12 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season and ought to negatively regress going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Jonah Heim has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last year’s 88.5-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)