Arizona Diamondbacks
Tampa Bay Rays
(-105/-115)-110
As the Tampa Bay Rays host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third game of their interleague series on August 18, 2024, both teams come off a noteworthy matchup yesterday, where the Rays claimed a decisive 6-1 victory. This win is especially promising for the Rays, who have been struggling with a record of 61-61 this season, placing them in the middle of the pack.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are having a solid season, boasting a 69-55 record, which reflects their competitive edge. Merrill Kelly, projected to start for Arizona, has been effective with a 2.43 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record this year. In his last outing, he pitched five innings, allowing just two earned runs, showcasing his ability to keep games close.
Conversely, Drew Rasmussen, the Rays’ projected starter, has faced challenges this season, with a 5.40 ERA. Despite this, his xFIP of 1.69 suggests he may have been unlucky, indicating the potential for improvement. However, he only projects to pitch about 1.5 innings today, which could put additional pressure on the Rays’ bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB.
The matchup heavily favors the Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks 4th overall, while the Rays’ offense struggles at 25th. Interestingly, the projections suggest a close contest, with the Rays expected to score around 3.75 runs and the Diamondbacks slightly ahead with an average projection of 3.80 runs. Given the stakes and the recent performances, this game promises to be a tight battle as both teams aim to assert their dominance.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Merrill Kelly has tallied 17.8 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 93rd percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Ben Rortvedt has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph dropping to 76.2-mph over the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Ben Rortvedt, Kameron Misner).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 107 games (+20.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games (+17.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Alex Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+9.90 Units / 37% ROI)