Chicago Cubs
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-110
On June 27, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the Chicago Cubs in a highly anticipated interleague matchup at Minute Maid Park. Both teams enter the game with identical records of 48-33, showcasing their strong seasons. Recently, the Astros have struggled, while the Cubs have been on a roll, winning their last game with a complete game shutout performance from their pitcher.
The Astros will send Brandon Walter to the mound, who is currently ranked as the 59th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Although Walter has a solid ERA of 3.80 this season, his win/loss record of 0-1 suggests he has faced some misfortune. He projects to pitch around 5.0 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but his high groundball rate (53 GB%) could be advantageous against a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 3rd in home runs this season.
On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Cade Horton, who has had a mixed season. With a 3-1 record and a respectable ERA of 3.73, Horton has shown potential, but he is considered a below-average pitcher overall. His projections indicate he will pitch around 4.9 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, but he struggles with strikeouts, projecting to only 4.2 today.
Offensively, the Cubs boast the 4th best lineup in MLB, while the Astros rank 13th. Both teams have strong batting averages, but the Cubs’ power and run production could give them the edge. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, it’s expected to be a close contest, reflecting the evenly matched nature of these two teams. The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 23rd, could be a liability, while the Cubs sit at 20th, adding another layer of intrigue to this matchup.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Carson Kelly – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Carson Kelly has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season’s 91.4-mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Brandon Walter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Brandon Walter (48.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)In terms of his home runs, Isaac Paredes has been very fortunate this year. His 28.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.2.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.1% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 35 games at home (+17.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.30 Units / 95% ROI)