Check Out the Live Stream Details for Astros vs Athletics – Wednesday, July 24, 2024

Houston Astros

@

Oakland Athletics

The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros square off on July 24, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum for the third game of their series. With the Athletics trudging through a dismal season at 40-62 and the Astros holding a slightly above-average record of 52-48, this American League West matchup appears skewed in favor of Houston. The Athletics are already out of playoff contention, while Houston seeks to bolster its postseason odds.

Taking the mound for Oakland is left-hander JP Sears, who has posted a 7-7 record with a 4.49 ERA across 20 starts this season. Sears ranks #179 among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicating he’s had a tough year. His projections show him allowing 3.0 earned runs over 5.5 innings and striking out 3.7 batters, all while facing an Astros lineup that ranks as the 10th best in MLB and #1 in team batting average. The matchup doesn’t favor Sears, especially given Houston’s low strikeout rate (#3 least in MLB), which could neutralize his already low 17.6 K%.

Houston counters with right-hander Hunter Brown, who sports an 8-6 record and a 4.14 ERA over 19 starts. Ranked #46 among starting pitchers, Brown’s 3.48 xERA suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and may perform even better. Projections have him allowing 2.5 earned runs over 5.6 innings with 5.9 strikeouts, which bodes well against an Athletics offense ranked 20th overall and 27th in team batting average, despite their surprising power display as the 4th best in home runs.

On the offensive side, Max Schuemann has been hot for Oakland, hitting .545 with a 1.643 OPS over the last week. For Houston, Yordan Alvarez has been stellar, posting a .429 average and 1.429 OPS in the same span.

Given the context, the Astros seem to have the upper hand. With an implied win probability of 59% and a moneyline of -160, Houston is favored to take this game, bolstered by a stronger pitcher on the mound and a more consistent offense. Oakland, with a moneyline of +135, faces an uphill battle to defy the odds and secure a win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Hunter Brown (48.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 FB hitters in Oakland’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Yordan Alvarez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93-mph to 100.1-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. JP Sears has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.9% more often this year (56.6%) than he did last year (49.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker has been lucky this year, compiling a .397 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .348 — a .049 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brent Rooker in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-130)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+9.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+15.05 Units / 25% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.35 Units / 31% ROI)