Check Out the Live Stream Details for Angels vs Blue Jays – Saturday, August 24, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to take on the Los Angeles Angels on August 24, 2024, they find themselves in a difficult season, sporting a record of 61-68. The Blue Jays are not in contention for a playoff spot, while the Angels, with a record of 54-75, are similarly struggling. This matchup marks the third game of the series, with the Blue Jays coming off a close win against the Angels on August 23, where they edged out a 5-4 victory.

The starting pitchers for this game will be Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays and Carson Fulmer for the Angels. Francis, the 169th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a Win/Loss record of 6-3 and an ERA of 4.38. He pitched well in his last start, going 7 innings and allowing no earned runs. However, he’s projected to allow 2.4 earned runs today, which remains above average. Fulmer, on the other hand, has struggled, with an 0-4 record this season and a FIP of 4.79, indicating he may have been fortunate so far. His projections suggest he will pitch poorly, averaging only 4.4 innings and allowing 2.5 earned runs.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 15th in MLB, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the team. His overall performance has been solid, while Joey Loperfido has also stepped up recently. The Angels, meanwhile, are ranked 24th in MLB, with Zach Neto as their standout player. The projections favor the Blue Jays, giving them a high implied team total of 4.82 runs, as they look to leverage their slight offensive edge against an underperforming Angels pitching staff. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  Carson Fulmer performed well in his previous game started and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Niko Kavadas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  Niko Kavadas is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Los Angeles Angels with a 25.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Considering that flyball pitchers have a significant edge over flyball batters, Bowden Francis and his 39.8% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this outing being matched up with 2 opposing FB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Spencer Horwitz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 95.1-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 62 games (+20.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 78 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Daulton Varsho has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.55 Units / 41% ROI)