Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+125
The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs are set for an intriguing matchup on September 17, 2025, at PNC Park. Following a 4-1 victory over the Pirates in their previous game, the Cubs are looking to extend their momentum against a struggling Pittsburgh squad that has been eliminated from contention in the National League Central.
As it stands, the Pirates sit at 65-87, while the Cubs boast an impressive 87-64 record. The Cubs are projected to start Matthew Boyd, who is having a solid season with a 3.05 ERA and a 13-8 record in 29 starts. Boyd ranks as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, although his 4.16 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year.
On the other side, Johan Oviedo takes the mound for the Pirates. Despite his 2-0 record and an excellent 2.81 ERA, Oviedo’s advanced metrics tell a different story, ranking him 136th among MLB starters. His 4.55 xFIP indicates he may regress moving forward, especially given his struggle with walks (13.0 BB%) and the fact he’s facing a patient Cubs offense that ranks 6th in the league for drawing walks.
The Pirates’ offense ranks 30th overall in MLB, struggling to generate runs and sitting at the bottom in home runs. In contrast, the Cubs’ offense is 10th in the league, showcasing a balanced attack that includes power and patience. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Pirates as underdogs with a moneyline of +120, the Cubs’ implied team total of 4.01 runs highlights their potential to capitalize on a Pirates team that has consistently underperformed this season.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Matthew Boyd has averaged 17.7 outs per GS this year, placing in the 91st percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the majors.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)This season, Joey Bart has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.8 mph compared to last year’s 93 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Today’s version of the Pirates projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .317 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 145 games (+25.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 79 of their last 149 games (+20.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 30% ROI)