Check Out the Braves vs Reds Best Bets and Expert Picks – Friday August 01, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Cincinnati Reds

On August 1, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves in the second game of their series at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, currently holding a record of 57-53, are having an above-average season, while the Braves sit at 46-62, struggling significantly. In their last matchup on July 31, the Reds fell to the Braves in a nail-biter, losing 12-11, illustrating the offensive firepower both teams can bring to the plate.

Projected starters for this matchup are Brady Singer for the Reds and Bryce Elder for the Braves. Singer, despite being ranked as the 151st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has shown flashes of competence, going 8-8 with a 4.60 ERA this season. In his last start on July 27, he pitched well, allowing just one earned run over seven innings while striking out eight. However, his projections indicate he may allow around 3.0 earned runs today, which is concerning given his tendency to surrender a high number of hits—averaging 5.4 per outing.

On the other side, Elder is having a rough season, with a 4-7 record and a troubling 6.29 ERA. His last outing was disastrous, giving up eight earned runs in just three innings. While his 4.19 xFIP suggests he could improve, the current numbers raise doubts about his ability to handle the Reds’ offense, which ranks 13th overall in MLB.

The Reds are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their stronger record and recent offensive output. With an implied team total of 5.04 runs, they look poised to capitalize on Elder’s struggles, making them a strong pick for this game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Bryce Elder has been unlucky this year, compiling a 6.29 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.80 — a 1.49 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Matt Olson has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 14.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Atlanta Braves batters jointly place 9th- in baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starting pitchers, Brady Singer’s fastball spin rate of 2421 rpm is in the 81st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Will Benson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Will Benson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last season’s 93.4-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.90 Units / 55% ROI)
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.35 Units / 16% ROI)