Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)+110
On April 6, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park in a highly anticipated National League matchup. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Phillies boasting a 6-2 record and the Dodgers at an impressive 9-1. The previous game between these two clubs resulted in a thrilling finish, underscoring the competitive nature of this series.
The projected starters will be Cristopher Sanchez for Philadelphia and Tyler Glasnow for Los Angeles. Sanchez, who ranks as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has begun the season with a solid 1.69 ERA over one start, although his 2.26 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some luck. Sanchez projects to pitch 5.7 innings and allow around 2.4 earned runs, but he will need to improve on his projected 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks allowed if the Phillies hope to secure a win.
On the other side, Glasnow is off to a remarkable start, holding an unblemished 0.00 ERA in his debut start, yielding a 2.42 xFIP that hints at potential regression. The elite right-hander is projected to strike out 6.9 batters while allowing only 2.2 earned runs across 5.5 innings.
Offensively, the Phillies rank 5th in MLB, showcasing their strong batting talent, while the Dodgers rank 11th, but their strength lies in their power—ranking 3rd in home runs this season. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the odds reflect a tight contest ahead. The Phillies, despite their quality lineup, face a challenge as their moneyline is set at +115, indicating a close matchup with the Dodgers favored at -135. This sets the stage for what promises to be an exciting game filled with playoff implications for both teams.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Tallying 18.3 outs per start since the start of last season on average, Tyler Glasnow places in the 97th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-130)The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Cristopher Sanchez has used his change-up 7.2% more often this season (43%) than he did last year (35.8%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Philadelphia Phillies batters jointly rank among the best in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (2nd- overall) as it relates to their 97.8-mph average exit velocity on the top 5% of their hardest-hit baseballs.Explain: Average exit velocity can be misleading. By focusing on a hitter’s best-hit balls, we can better isolate his underlying talent and what he will do in the future.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 74 games at home (+12.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 80 games (+25.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)Mookie Betts has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+15.10 Units / 151% ROI)