Cardinals vs Pirates Betting Guide – 4/08/25

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park on April 8, 2025, in the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Pirates sitting at 4-7 and the Cardinals at 4-6. In their last matchup, the Pirates pulled off an 8-4 victory, adding to the Cardinals’ woes as they look to bounce back.

On the mound, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes, who is currently the top-ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skenes boasts an impressive 1.46 ERA and has shown elite potential, projecting to allow only 1.4 earned runs and strike out 6.8 batters on average today. His ability to generate ground balls (62% GB%) may help him neutralize the Cardinals’ powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB and has already hit 16 home runs this season.

Conversely, the Cardinals will counter with Sonny Gray, who ranks 24th among starting pitchers. Gray has struggled with a 5.73 ERA, but projections suggest he could improve, as his xFIP of 3.40 indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, but he faces a Pirates lineup that has the 2nd most strikeouts in MLB, which could play to his strengths.

Despite the Pirates’ low implied team total of 3.20 runs, they have shown flashes of offensive potential, particularly with their speed on the bases. The Cardinals, with a much stronger offensive ranking, will need to capitalize on their chances to avoid falling to a 4-7 record. With both teams eager to break out of their early-season slumps, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Sonny Gray is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Victor Scott II – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Victor Scott is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 23.7% more often this year (56.1%) than he did last season (32.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jack Suwinski has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 85.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.60 Units / 36% ROI)
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 9 away games (+9.30 Units / 91% ROI)