Cardinals vs Mets Betting Line and Odds – April 18, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

New York Mets

On April 18, 2025, the New York Mets will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Citi Field for the second game of their series. The Mets entered this matchup riding high after a solid 4-1 victory over the Cardinals the previous day, showcasing their strength thus far in the season with a record of 12-7. Conversely, the Cardinals have struggled, sitting at 9-10 and dealing with subpar performances.

The pitching matchup features left-hander David Peterson for the Mets and right-hander Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Peterson’s season has been impressive, boasting a 2.70 ERA and a respectable 5.6 innings pitched projection for today. He has shown the ability to keep runs in check, projected to allow just 2.1 earned runs on average. In his last start on April 12, Peterson pitched well, going six innings and allowing only two earned runs. His Power Rankings position at 117th among 350 pitchers indicates an average performance overall, but he’s been fortunate, as his xFIP suggests he may come down to earth soon.

In stark contrast, Mikolas has struggled significantly this season, owning a discouraging 9.00 ERA. His performance has raised concerns, especially considering that he projects to allow 2.8 earned runs today. The projections suggest that he may be due for some improvement, yet his low strikeout rate (16.7 K%) poses a challenge against a Mets offense that, despite ranking 22nd in the league, has shown resilience.

With the Mets as favorites at a -190 moneyline and an implied team total of 4.60 runs, they are expected to capitalize on their pitching advantage. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offensive prowess, ranked 6th overall and 2nd in batting average, could be tested as they face a pitcher in Peterson who can stifle scoring opportunities effectively.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Miles Mikolas in the 3rd percentile among all starters in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Pedro Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 90.7-mph mark last season has fallen to 83.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the St. Louis Cardinals projected offense today (.304 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starting pitchers, David Peterson’s fastball velocity of 91.8 mph is in the 24th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Brett Baty generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-210)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 78% ROI)