Cardinals vs Brewers Best Bets and Expert Picks – Tuesday September 03, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals face off on September 3, 2024, at American Family Field, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, holding a strong 81-57 record, are looking to solidify their postseason position, while the Cardinals sit at an even 69-69, struggling to find any momentum. In their previous game, the Brewers pulled off an impressive victory, showcasing their depth and talent against a tough opponent.

Milwaukee’s Aaron Civale takes the mound, projected for 5.4 innings with an average of 2.4 earned runs allowed. Despite a less-than-stellar 5-8 record this season and ranking as the 142nd best starting pitcher according to advanced stats, Civale’s 4.09 xERA suggests he has been unlucky and could outperform expectations moving forward.

On the other side, St. Louis counters with Steven Matz, who has had a challenging season with a 6.18 ERA over just 6 starts. He is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings today, allowing roughly 2.6 earned runs. Matz has faced his share of struggles, making this matchup particularly daunting for the Cardinals. With the Brewers boasting the 2nd best batting average in MLB, and ranking 9th in overall offense, they have the upper hand in exploiting a struggling pitcher like Matz.

Betting markets reflect this favorable matchup, with the Brewers listed as a -145 favorite and an implied team total of 4.56 runs. Given the quality of their offense and the struggles of Matz, the Brewers are well-positioned to capitalize and extend their winning streak as they push towards the playoffs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Steven Matz – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Steven Matz has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Paul Goldschmidt has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.5-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 team in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Aaron Civale’s cutter percentage has fallen by 6.3% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  As it relates to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year. His 22.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 130 games (+14.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 65 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+400/-630)
  Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 46 games (+28.95 Units / 63% ROI)