Cardinals vs Braves Bets and Betting Trends – 7/19/24

St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Truist Park on July 19, 2024, in what shapes up to be a compelling National League matchup. The Braves, boasting a solid 53-42 record, are having a good season and will look to continue their momentum after a 6-3 victory against the Padres on July 14. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, with an above-average 50-46 record, are coming off a disappointing 8-3 loss to the Cubs.

The Braves will send Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Schwellenbach, ranked #59 among starting pitchers, has shown signs of potential despite his 3-4 record and 4.43 ERA. His 3.86 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could perform better as the season progresses. In his last outing on July 12, Schwellenbach pitched well, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run, 3 strikeouts, and 3 hits allowed.

Opposing him will be Sonny Gray, the Cardinals’ ace and the #16 ranked starting pitcher. Gray has been stellar this season with a 9-6 record and a 3.34 ERA. His 2.76 xFIP indicates he’s been even better than his ERA suggests. In his last start on July 12, Gray pitched 7 innings, giving up 3 earned runs while striking out 6 and allowing 9 hits.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB, with a standout performance in home runs, ranking 10th. Their best hitter, Marcell Ozuna, has been a force with a .303 batting average and 26 home runs. On the other side, the Cardinals’ offense ranks 19th, with Alec Burleson leading the charge. Burleson has a .288 batting average and 17 home runs.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Braves ranked 6th and the Cardinals 4th in our Power Rankings, indicating they can close out games effectively. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, reflecting the strong pitching matchup.

Betting markets imply a close game, with the Braves having a slight edge with a -115 moneyline and a 51% implied win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects this as an evenly matched contest, giving both teams a 50% win probability. Given Schwellenbach’s potential for improvement and the Braves’ balanced offensive attack, Atlanta might have a slight edge in what promises to be a tightly contested game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 58.7% of the time, placing in the 75th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Masyn Winn’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 81.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ranking 4th-lowest in Major League Baseball this year, St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly have recorded a 11.4° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable stat to study power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-115)
  Among all the teams today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  St. Louis’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 94 games (+21.65 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 64% ROI)