Brewers vs Padres Betting Line and Odds – September 24, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their respective seasons. The Padres, with an 87-71 record, are enjoying a solid campaign, while the Brewers boast a 95-63 record, indicating they are in the midst of a great season. This matchup carries significance as it is the third game in the series, and the stakes are high.

In their latest outing, the Padres fell short against the Brewers, who have been riding a wave of momentum. On the mound, San Diego will send Dylan Cease, a right-handed pitcher ranked 26th among MLB starters according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cease has had a mixed year, holding an 8-12 record and an average ERA of 4.64. However, his expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 3.60 suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Chad Patrick, who has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and a good ERA of 3.66, yet is deemed a subpar pitcher by MLB standards. Patrick’s projections indicate he may only pitch 4.2 innings, which could be a disadvantage against a Padres offense that ranks 10th in team batting average despite its dismal 29th ranking in home runs.

The Padres’ bullpen is ranked 2nd, showcasing its strength in late-game situations, while the Brewers’ bullpen is ranked 24th, indicating a potential weakness. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets see this as a closely contested battle, favoring the Padres at -135 with an implied team total of 4.23 runs. Overall, this matchup promises to be an intriguing clash between pitching and offensive capabilities.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The San Diego Padres have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Chad Patrick in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+280/-400)
  Joey Ortiz has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme groundball batters like Jose Iglesias tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.