Brewers vs Padres Betting Line and Odds – September 24, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 24, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup. The Padres’ recent victory over the Brewers, a commanding 7-0 shutout, highlighted their potential as they look to maximize their chances at a Wild Card spot. Currently, the Padres sit with an 87-71 record, while the Brewers boast a robust 95-63. Despite their losses, the Brewers have had a great season and rank 10th in MLB offense.

Starting for the Padres is Dylan Cease, who, while ranking 26th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced metrics, has been notably inconsistent this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-12 and an ERA of 4.64. However, his 3.60 xFIP indicates he could be poised for an improvement. Cease’s high strikeout rate of 29.6% may be tested against a Brewers lineup that is among the best at minimizing strikeouts.

On the other side, Chad Patrick is projected to take the mound for Milwaukee. With an ERA of 3.66, he’s been effective but his 3-8 record signals struggles in run support. Patrick’s flyball tendencies could play into the Padres’ hands, especially given their below-average power numbers, ranked 28th in home runs this season.

Betting lines have the Padres at -135, suggesting they have a 55% chance of winning. However, considering the Brewers’ overall offensive strength and their ability to draw walks, they present a legitimate threat. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tightly contested outing. With both teams vying for a crucial win, this showdown at Petco Park promises to be exciting.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Chad Patrick has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.26 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.36 — a 0.90 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Christian Yelich has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97-mph average to last season’s 93.4-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Despite posting a .366 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ramon Laureano has been lucky given the .035 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 115 games (+11.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 114 games (+27.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)