Brewers vs Mets Picks and Betting Trends – 7/02/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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New York Mets

The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets clash in the second game of their double-header at Citi Field, following a decisive 12-1 win for the Brewers in the first matchup. Both teams are enjoying solid seasons, with the Mets sitting at 48-38 and the Brewers just slightly ahead at 48-37. As the playoff race heats up, both teams are looking to secure key victories.

For the Mets, Huascar Brazoban will take the mound. Despite his #187 ranking among starting pitchers according to advanced stats, Brazoban has shown some promise in relief this season, holding a solid 3.83 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, averaging just 1.5 innings pitched while allowing 0.7 earned runs and 1.3 hits. His high groundball rate of 51% could play well against a Brewers offense that has been lacking power, ranking 25th in homers this season.

On the other side, Jacob Misiorowski, with a 1.13 ERA, is projected to pitch longer—around 4.2 innings—but his stats suggest he has been somewhat lucky, as his xFIP sits at 3.22. Misiorowski is off to a strong start, boasting a perfect 3-0 record this season, and his last outing was impressive, going 5 innings without allowing any earned runs.

Offensively, the Mets rank 7th in MLB for team offense and 7th in home runs, signaling their ability to score in bunches. In contrast, the Brewers rank 17th overall and have a mediocre batting average. However, Milwaukee’s strength lies in their base-running, with the 2nd most stolen bases in the league.

As the teams gear up for this crucial game, the Mets’ offense looks to capitalize on their home-field advantage, while the Brewers aim to continue their momentum from the first game. With betting markets reflecting a close contest, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  The New York Mets have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Misiorowski today, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Blade Tidwell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (41.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Ronny Mauricio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Over the past 14 days, Ronny Mauricio’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.8% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Placing 3rd-least steep in Major League Baseball this year, New York Mets bats collectively have recorded a 11.6° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable stat to study power ability).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 65 games (+7.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 78 games (+15.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+7.60 Units / 190% ROI)