Braves vs Giants Betting Guide – 8/13/24

Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants welcome the Atlanta Braves to Oracle Park for a pivotal matchup on August 13, 2024. Both teams are closely matched, with the Giants sitting at 61-60 and the Braves at 62-56, but the stakes are higher for San Francisco, which has hopes of securing a Wild Card spot. The previous day saw the Braves narrowly edge the Giants 1-0, a tight contest that highlighted the competitive nature of this series.

On the mound, the Giants will rely on left-hander Kyle Harrison, who has had an average season with a 4.08 ERA, ranking him as the 195th best starter in MLB, out of around 350 pitchers. However, despite his modest record of 6-5 in 20 starts, Harrison’s xERA of 4.73 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate this season. His projections for today’s game aren’t promising, as he is expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out just 4.9 batters—below average by MLB standards.

In contrast, the Braves will counter with veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who has had a mixed season, currently holding a 4.47 ERA. Morton’s last outing was rough, surrendering 8 earned runs in just 3 innings, but he is projected to pitch 5.4 innings today and allow 2.7 earned runs with a respectable strikeout rate of 6.3.

Offensively, the Giants rank 14th overall, struggling particularly with power, sitting at 23rd in home runs. On the flip side, the Braves boast a stronger offense, ranking 13th overall and 10th in home runs. Notably, Marcell Ozuna has been a standout, hitting 35 home runs this season with an impressive .965 OPS.

According to projections, the Giants have a slight edge, anticipating they will score around 4.44 runs, while the Braves are projected to tally 4.59 runs. With both teams vying for a crucial victory, this game promises to be another competitive affair in a tight series.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to league average, Charlie Morton has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  There has been a decrease in Whit Merrifield’s average exit velocity this year, from 85.1 mph last year to 82.8 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  With 8 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Harrison will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Fitzgerald’s true offensive skill to be a .303, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .115 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .418 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Heliot Ramos has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+9.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 117 games (+19.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+13.40 Units / 111% ROI)