Boxscore for Yankees vs Rays – 4/20/25

New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays

On April 20, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the fourth game of a pivotal series with both teams having something to prove. Just yesterday, the Rays managed a thrilling 10-8 victory over the Yankees, snapping a losing streak that underscored their struggles this season. Currently, the Rays sit at 9-12, while the Yankees boast a strong 13-8 record, reflecting their impressive form.

The Rays will turn to Ryan Pepiot, who has had an up-and-down start to the season, holding a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.91. His last outing was particularly concerning, as he allowed 6 earned runs over 6 innings. Despite this, advanced projections suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve. Conversely, Yankees ace Max Fried is having a stellar season, sporting a 3-0 record and a remarkable ERA of 1.88, indicating he is performing at an elite level.

Offensively, the Rays rank 6th in MLB, with a particularly strong batting average placing them 2nd in the league. However, they’ve struggled to hit home runs, ranking 18th, which could be a critical factor against a Yankees lineup that ranks 2nd in home runs. The Yankees’ offensive powerhouse is anchored by their best hitter, who has a staggering .397 batting average and 7 home runs this season.

With the Yankees heavily favored, current betting lines reflect an implied total of 4.49 runs for New York and just 3.51 runs for Tampa Bay. As the game approaches, the Rays will need to leverage their offensive capabilities and hope Pepiot can provide a better outing to even the series.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  Because groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (52.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Aaron Judge usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .332, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .348 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ryan Pepiot’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (60.4% compared to 49.4% last season) should work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay’s 88-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the majors: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+1.15 Units / 4% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 34% ROI)