Boxscore for White Sox vs Twins – 8/3/24

Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on August 3, 2024, at Target Field, the stakes are clear. The Twins are enjoying a solid season with a record of 60-48, placing them in a comfortable position within the American League Central. In stark contrast, the White Sox are struggling significantly, sitting at 27-85, making this matchup a classic case of a contender versus a team in disarray.

In their previous encounter on August 2, the Twins decisively defeated the White Sox 10-2, showcasing their offensive prowess and solid pitching. Bailey Ober, projected to start for the Twins, is coming off a remarkable complete game shutout in his last outing, where he allowed just one hit and struck out 11 batters. This performance has positioned him as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, a testament to his effectiveness this year.

Garrett Crochet, slated to take the mound for the White Sox, has had a tumultuous season, holding a 3.23 ERA but struggling with consistency. His last start saw him only last three innings while giving up three earned runs, raising concerns about his ability to handle a powerful Twins lineup that ranks 6th in MLB offensively.

The projections favor the Twins significantly, suggesting they will score around 4.73 runs, while the White Sox are expected to manage only 4.19 runs. This mismatch highlights the Twins’ offensive depth against a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in MLB. With Ober’s recent form and the White Sox’s ongoing struggles, the Twins appear to be the clear favorites in this matchup.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 9 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Garrett Crochet will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Corey Julks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Corey Julks has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Bailey Ober’s 91.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 18th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Willi Castro’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.6-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+140/-185)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)