Chicago White Sox
Seattle Mariners
(+100/-120)-275
On August 7, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park in an intriguing matchup as the teams continue their series. The Mariners, sitting at 62-53, are having an above-average season, while the White Sox are struggling significantly with a record of 42-72. Notably, the Mariners took the first game of the series yesterday, adding to the White Sox’s woes.
Logan Gilbert is projected to take the mound for Seattle, and he’s been performing at an elite level this season, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. With a solid ERA of 3.45 and a promising 2.41 xFIP, Gilbert is likely to improve as the season progresses. He projects to pitch around 6.2 innings today, allowing just 1.7 earned runs and striking out 8.3 batters, which bodes well for the Mariners’ chances.
In contrast, Shane Smith is set to start for Chicago. Although his ERA of 4.25 is above average, he has struggled this season, holding a 3-7 record over 19 starts. Smith’s projections suggest he will pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out just 4.8 batters on average. This disparity in performance between the two starting pitchers could heavily influence the game’s outcome.
Offensively, the Mariners rank 10th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that excels in power with the 3rd most home runs this season. The White Sox offense, on the other hand, is ranked 29th, highlighting their struggles to generate runs consistently. With the betting lines favoring the Mariners heavily at -275, they are expected to dominate this matchup, and their implied team total of 4.65 runs reflects that confidence.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Shane Smith – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)Recording 14.4 outs per outing this year on average, Shane Smith ranks in the 13th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)Kyle Teel has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Curtis Mead – Over/Under Total BasesCurtis Mead has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Logan Gilbert’s change-up percentage has jumped by 6.7% from last season to this one (13.4% to 20.1%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Dominic Canzone has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 94.6-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).