Boxscore for Padres vs Rockies – 9/5/25

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the San Diego Padres on September 5, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Rockies sit at the bottom of the National League West with a dismal 39-101 record, while the Padres boast a respectable 76-64, making this a compelling series opener. The Rockies recently lost a nail-biter to the Padres in their last game, falling 10-8, while the Padres themselves are coming off a loss, having dropped their previous game 7-5.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Kyle Freeland, who has struggled this season with a 3-14 record and an ERA of 5.41, ranking him as the 191st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Freeland’s low strikeout rate (16.6 K%) could be a significant disadvantage against a Padres lineup that rarely strikes out, ranking 3rd least in MLB.

In contrast, Nick Pivetta is expected to take the hill for San Diego. With a stellar 13-4 record and an impressive 2.84 ERA, Pivetta is ranked 45th among MLB starting pitchers. His ability to generate strikeouts (26.8 K%) will be critical against a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd most in strikeouts. However, Pivetta has been somewhat lucky this season, and projections indicate he may not perform at quite the same level going forward.

The Rockies’ offense has been lackluster, ranking 27th overall in MLB and struggling to produce runs consistently. Their best hitter has had a strong week, with a .476 batting average, but overall team performance leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense, while average at 19th, has shown potential, particularly with their batting average ranking 9th in MLB.

With the game total set at a high 10.5 runs, and the Rockies being significant underdogs with a moneyline of +185, this matchup presents a unique opportunity for bettors to consider the disparity in pitching talent and offensive capabilities as they prepare for this series opener at Coors Field.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-200)
  Nick Pivetta has utilized his curveball 5.6% more often this year (22.1%) than he did last season (16.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In the past two weeks, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.2% down to 3.1%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Kyle Freeland’s fastball velocity of 91 mph is in the 15th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Hunter Goodman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under Total Bases
  As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Orlando Arcia ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 80 of their last 138 games (+13.57 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 109 games (+11.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)