Boxscore for Orioles vs White Sox – 9/15/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on September 15, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to finish the season on a positive note. The White Sox, with a record of 57-93, are in the midst of a disastrous campaign, currently sitting at the bottom of the American League Central. Meanwhile, the Orioles, who stand at 69-80, find themselves in a similar boat, lacking the consistency needed to climb in the standings.

In their last games, the White Sox narrowly fell to their opponents with a score of 3-2, while the Orioles suffered a significant defeat, losing 11-2. These results reflect the pressing issues both teams face, particularly the offensive struggles for the White Sox, who rank 28th in MLB in offensive production this season.

On the mound, Tyler Gilbert is projected to start for the White Sox, despite his less-than-stellar averages—1.3 innings pitched and 1.3 hits allowed per outing. In contrast, the Orioles will counter with Kyle Bradish, who has shown flashes of brilliance, especially in his last start on September 9, where he pitched admirably over 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run with 6 strikeouts.

Despite their current struggles, the projections for the Orioles suggest they could outperform their current betting line of -140, which implies a 56% chance of winning. Their offense, ranked 21st in MLB, will look to capitalize against Gilbert, who has projected struggles. As the White Sox’s pitching staff ranks well in the bullpen at 10th overall in Power Rankings, this matchup presents a critical opportunity for the Orioles to seize a win in this opening game of the series.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Kyle Bradish has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 11.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Jackson Holliday has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Sean Burke has been very fortunate when it comes to his ERA this year; his 4.35 rate is deflated compared to his 5.10 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Andrew Benintendi has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 79.1-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+120)
  The Chicago White Sox projected offense projects as the weakest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 75 games at home (+20.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 129 games (+23.28 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-175)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 80% ROI)