Boxscore for Marlins vs Guardians – 8/12/25

Miami Marlins

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Miami Marlins at Progressive Field on August 12, 2025, in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves in challenging positions in the standings, with the Guardians holding a record of 61-56, suggesting an above-average season, while the Marlins sit at 57-61, indicating a below-average performance. The Guardians are currently projected as favorites with a moneyline of -140.

In their most recent outings, the Guardians’ Logan Allen is set to take the mound. Allen has struggled this season with a 7-9 record and ranks as the 233rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While his ERA is a respectable 3.96, his xFIP of 4.63 suggests he may have been fortunate so far. He projects to pitch approximately 5.5 innings today but is expected to allow around 2.9 earned runs, highlighting his inconsistency, particularly with a projected 6.1 hits and 1.7 walks allowed.

On the other side, Janson Junk of the Marlins also brings a mixed bag to the mound. With a 6-2 record and a 3.97 ERA, his FIP of 2.67 indicates that he has been somewhat unlucky this season. However, Junk’s projections are concerning, as he is anticipated to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, 5.6 hits, and 1.3 walks.

Offensively, the Guardians are struggling, ranked 27th in MLB, with a dismal 30th ranking in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Marlins are slightly better at 20th overall but boast a solid 11th ranking in batting average. Given the Guardians’ struggles at the plate and the Marlins’ ability to get on base, this matchup could lean in favor of the Marlins, despite the Guardians being favored. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, it may be prudent for bettors to consider the under, given the projected performances of both pitchers.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+370/-560)
  Grading out in the 97th percentile for base-stealing, Dane Myers has average 37.3 swipes per 600 plate appearances this year.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Logan Allen has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gabriel Arias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Miami’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Gabriel Arias, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-135)
  The 5th-worst projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 71 games (+7.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+14.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)