Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
(+100/-120)-150
The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros will face off once again at Target Field on July 7, 2024, marking the third game in their series. The Twins currently hold a solid record of 50-39, placing them in a favorable position within the American League standings. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a 46-43 record, are having a slightly above-average season. In their last outing on July 6, the Twins dominated the Astros with a convincing 9-3 victory, highlighting their current strong form.
For today’s matchup, the Twins will send Simeon Woods Richard to the mound. While he’s considered one of the weaker starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasting a 3.52 ERA this season and a 3-1 record, his peripheral stats suggest he might regress. Specifically, his 4.37 xFIP indicates he’s been a bit lucky so far. On the other side, the Astros will counter with Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled with a 6.13 ERA###102. However, his 4.41 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and might improve.
Both offenses are potent, with Minnesota ranking 4th in overall offensive power and the Astros ranking 6th. The Twins, led by Willi Castro, have showcased impressive power numbers, including a 6th place ranking in home runs. Meanwhile, Houston boasts the best team batting average in MLB and has been anchored by Yordan Alvarez, who has been stellar, especially over the last week with a .318 batting average and 1.334 OPS.
The bullpens are also expected to play a critical role. Minnesota’s bullpen is ranked 6th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while Houston’s is 11th. The Twins’ pen has been more reliable throughout the season, which could be crucial in a close game.
With the Twins as the betting favorites at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they are expected to continue their winning streak against the Astros. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also gives the Twins a slight edge with a 53% win probability, suggesting a competitive game ahead at Target Field. Expect Minnesota’s offense and bullpen to be the deciding factors as they aim to clinch another win against Houston.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros batters as a group rank near the top of the league this year (10th-) as it relates to their 89-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-150)The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 22 games (+10.95 Units / 41% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Run Line +1.5 (-165)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+12.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Max Kepler – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)