Blue Jays vs Red Sox Injury Report – Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on August 28, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League East. The Red Sox currently sit at 68-64, enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays trail with a record of 65-69, marking an average campaign. The Red Sox recently secured a win against the Blue Jays, triumphing 6-3 in their last matchup on August 27, 2024.

On the mound, the Red Sox will start Brayan Bello, who has performed well this season with an 11-6 record. Despite an ERA of 4.95, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as reflected in his xFIP of 3.87, which indicates he could perform even better moving forward. Bello’s groundball rate of 51% may play a crucial role against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

Opposing him is Chris Bassitt, who has a 9-12 record and a respectable ERA of 4.41. Bassitt’s last outing saw him allow four earned runs over six innings, highlighting his average performance this year. The projections indicate he will allow around 2.9 earned runs today, which aligns with his season averages.

The Red Sox offense ranks 4th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Blue Jays sit at 15th. Jarren Duran has been a standout for Boston, contributing significantly to their scoring efforts, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been productive for Toronto, but the overall team performance has not matched expectations.

With both teams eager to secure a vital win, the Red Sox enter as the betting favorites with a current moneyline of -140. The leading MLB projection system suggests Boston has a solid chance to win, further solidifying their competitive edge in this crucial matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Chris Bassitt’s four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 5.4% from last year to this one (9.3% to 3.9%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Daulton Varsho can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (20.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Brayan Bello has generated a sizeable jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2029 rpm over the entire season to 2095 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Tyler O’Neill has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .258 figure is quite a bit higher than his .210 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 89 games (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 32 away games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-190/+145)
  Brayan Bello has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)