Blue Jays vs Orioles Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/11/2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Orioles currently sit at 5-8, struggling with a disappointing start to the season, while the Blue Jays boast a solid 8-6 record, reflective of a strong beginning. The last time these two teams met, the Orioles faced a demoralizing 9-0 defeat, while the Blue Jays fell narrowly to another opponent, 4-3, in their most recent outing.

In this matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, the Orioles will rely on Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had an inconsistent season thus far. Despite a respectable ERA of 2.89, Sugano’s xFIP of 5.25 suggests he may have benefitted from some luck. This game marks a significant opportunity for him to improve, especially against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled with power, sitting near the bottom of MLB in home runs with just 6 this season.

Bowden Francis takes the mound for the Blue Jays, showing decent form with a 3.18 ERA and a slightly elevated xFIP of 4.37. Francis has recorded 6 strikeouts in his last outing, but he also allowed 6 hits and 2 walks, indicating he may be vulnerable against a Baltimore lineup that ranks 16th in offensive output this season.

With an implied run total of 8.0 runs for this matchup, betting markets indicate it could be a competitive game. The Orioles have the advantage in their bullpen rankings at 6th, compared to the Blue Jays’ 18th, potentially giving Baltimore a late-game edge. As both teams look to break out of their recent trends, expect an intriguing duel on the diamond.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays hitters jointly rank 26th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-250)
  Alejandro Kirk has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 42% ROI)