Betting Trends for Rays vs Phillies Game – 9/11/24

Tampa Bay Rays

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies, holding a strong record of 87-58 this season, continue to solidify their position as a playoff contender. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays, at 71-74, find themselves in a more precarious position, struggling to find consistency and a foothold in the postseason race.

These two teams squared off yesterday, with the Phillies dominating the game and securing a convincing 9-4 victory. This win not only marks a solid performance for the Phillies but also puts pressure on the Rays as they face a series deficit in this Interleague matchup.

Zack Wheeler, projected to start for Philadelphia, is enjoying an elite season, boasting a 2.59 ERA and ranking as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. He has demonstrated remarkable efficiency in his last outing, allowing just 1 earned run over 6 innings with 7 strikeouts and only 2 hits. His ability to generate strikeouts plays well against the Rays’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 5th in the league.

On the other hand, the Rays will counter with Shane Baz, whose recent performances have been subpar. While his ERA is a respectable 3.27, his xFIP suggests an impending regression, indicating he might not be able to maintain such success moving forward. Given the struggles of the Rays’ offense, which ranks 26th overall, Baz will need to elevate his game significantly for Tampa Bay to have a chance against a potent Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in batting average and features standout hitters like Kyle Schwarber.

With betting odds heavily favoring the Phillies, who possess high implied team total projections, they enter this matchup with a strong expected performance. Ultimately, the combination of Wheeler’s elite pitching and the Phillies’ strong offensive capabilities gives them a pronounced advantage as they seek another victory to strengthen their playoff position.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ben Rortvedt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Ben Rortvedt’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Bryson Stott is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Philadelphia Phillies in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .308, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .325 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 136 games (+19.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)