Betting Trends for Phillies vs Brewers Game – 9/16/24

Philadelphia Phillies

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 16, 2024, the stakes are high for both teams. The Brewers currently sit with a record of 86-63, while the Phillies lead with a record of 90-59. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, but the Brewers need to bounce back after a narrow 11-10 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in their last outing. The Phillies, on the other hand, are riding high after securing a tight 2-1 victory over the New York Mets.

The matchup features two pitchers with contrasting forms, as Milwaukee will send Aaron Civale to the mound against Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez. Civale’s season has been mediocre, ranking 142nd among MLB starters with a Win/Loss record of 6-8 and an ERA of 4.57. His recent performances have raised eyebrows, especially given that he projects to allow 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks on average today, which could spell trouble against a potent Phillies lineup.

Suarez, ranked 44th among MLB starters, has had a solid season with a 12-6 record and an impressive 3.05 ERA. Although he struggled in his last start, giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings, he remains a low-walk pitcher with a BB% of just 5.8. This could be a key factor as the Brewers offense ranks 2nd in MLB for walks, but they may find it challenging to draw them against Suarez’s control.

With both offenses boasting strong statistics—Milwaukee ranks 8th overall while Philadelphia ranks 4th—the projections favor a slight edge for the Phillies, who are anticipated to score an average of 4.63 runs compared to the Brewers’ 4.10 runs. In a game that could go either way, the Brewers will need a strong performance from Civale to regain momentum and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Ranger Suarez’s fastball velocity has dropped 2 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense ranks as the 3rd-best on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Aaron Civale to throw 85 pitches in today’s matchup (15th-most of all pitchers on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Willy Adames has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 75.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 7.5% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers ranks them as the #21 offense in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 148 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-165/+125)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games (+13.90 Units / 28% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Willy Adames has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 38 games (+26.90 Units / 71% ROI)