Betting Trends for Guardians vs Tigers Game – (7/11/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are set to clash again on July 11, 2024, at Comerica Park in an American League Central matchup. The Tigers (44-49) are aiming to build momentum after narrowly edging out the Guardians (57-34) with a 5-4 victory yesterday. Despite their below-average season, the Tigers look to take advantage of their home field and perhaps surprise the division leaders once more.

On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Jack Flaherty, who has been a bright spot with a 5-5 record and a stellar 3.24 ERA this year. Flaherty, ranked the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, aims to rebound from a shaky last outing where he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. His underlying numbers, such as a 2.33 xFIP, indicate he may have been a bit unlucky this season and is poised for a bounce-back performance.

Opposing him is one of the Guardians’ weaker links, Spencer Howard, who has struggled with a 5.63 ERA over 6 starts this year. Howard’s advanced metrics suggest some bad luck, but his 5.00 xFIP still indicates room for improvement. Given Detroit’s offensive struggles—they rank 26th in MLB—the Guardians might still have a chance to keep the game close despite Howard’s issues.

Offensively, the Tigers have relied on Riley Greene, who has posted a .260 batting average and a .849 OPS over 92 games. However, over the past week, Colt Keith has been the standout with a .423 batting average and 4 home runs in 7 games. Comparatively, the Guardians have a more balanced attack, led by Jose Ramirez’s .275 batting average and .860 OPS. Angel Martinez has been hot recently, batting .348 with a 1.125 OPS over the last week.

Both teams have contrasting bullpens, with the Tigers ranked 15th and the Guardians boasting the 1st best bullpen in MLB this season. This could be pivotal in a close game, especially given the projected tight scoreline. Though the Tigers have a slight edge based on THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 53% chance to win, the betting markets see this as a nearly even matchup. With the Tigers’ moneyline at -120 and the Guardians at +100, expect another nail-biter in Detroit  i….

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the best among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Andres Gimenez is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be best to expect worse numbers for the Cleveland Guardians offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Jack Flaherty has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Wenceel Perez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 78.7-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers hitters jointly rank near the bottom of Major League Baseball this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 91 games (+15.92 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)